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Scots are on brink of backing independence from UK thanks to Brexit

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The Scottish public is now on the brink of backing independence from the United Kingdom due to Brexit.

That’s the unavoidable conclusion to be drawn from the most recent opinion polls.

Analysis this week of six recent surveys by the UK’s leading pollster John Curtice found that support for independence among decided voters is now at 49% – just shy of a majority.

What Scotland Thinks

Indeed that majority may have already arrived, according to one recent poll.

According to a survey by the pollster Lord Ashcroft back in August, support for independence was at 52% after undecided voters were excluded.

The claim that Scottish voters do not want another vote is also hard to sustain from this data, with Curtice’s analysis showing a clear shift among both pro and anti-independence voters, towards wanting another referendum.

Brexit is driving the UK apart

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The shift towards independence among Scots — an average increase in four points from the start of the year — has been driven entirely by voters who are unhappy about the prospect of Brexit.

“All of this increase in support for Yes registered by the polls has occurred among those who voted Remain,” Curtice writes.

“The claim that Brexit does not pose any risk to Scotland’s future membership of the Union now looks significantly more difficult to sustain.”

Indeed, with one recent poll also finding a majority for independence in Northern Ireland, it appears that the warnings that Brexit risked tearing the United Kingdom apart are starting to be realised.



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